The Broncos!

BREAKING NEWS: July 13th, 2007

YOUR 2007 DENVER BRONCOS, NOW WITH 100% LESS PLUMMER.

Now that we've had time to calm down and accept that the mighty Jake "The Snake" Plummer will be out of the league this year, we here at LPP can return to our regular pastime of following the NFL. The one good thing about Jake retiring rather than going to another city is that we do not feel the need to cheer for a different team. We will stick with the Broncos as we always have despite the disappointing Plummer situation. It's the right thing to do, we suppose.

So what are we looking at? Well, other than a distinct lack of Snake on Sundays, we're looking at a pretty decent situation. Before you all chime in that Cutler is the reason, let us say...yeah, whatever. Cutler is not the key to this season; admittedly, Jake wouldn't have been the focal point either. All that's required from the Broncos QB position this year is average, unhurried play; if you look at the receiver corps, you'll note that these are not the kind of receivers that will be leading the league in receptions, yards, or TDs. They'll make a good showing, and if Cutler stays healthy they'll be consistent, but this Broncos squad is going to live and die on three things--which, we will cheerfully admit, equals good news for Broncos fans.

1. Travis Henry - Travis is officially the number one running back; any other approach indicates Shanahan has really lost his mind. No hemming and hawing over which Bell gets the carries; how to effectively split possessions; who gets the ball in which quarter. Travis Henry is here to get 75% of the carries, period. He can easily get 1100-1300 yards with this offensive line as the Broncos have always maintained a top ground attack. Now, his season could range from "very good" to "great" barring injury. If the O-line can't protect Cutler and causes poor passing options, opponents will be keying on Henry all year, reducing his effectiveness. If Cutler is given time to throw, the running game will get a little more breathing room. The offensive line only lasted about 8 games last season before holes started getting bigger and bigger; giving Plummer and Cutler less time to throw than someone like Peyton Manning, who gets more time to throw on a single play than Jake and Jay usually got in an entire series after Week 9 or so.

2. Dre' Bly and the defense - If Bly plays to his full potential--and there's no reason to believe he won't--Denver's defensive backfield becomes far and away the most dangerous in the league. The pass defense will be the crucial factor in a few specific games: Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, week 4; Philip Rivers and San Diego in weeks 5 and 16; Brett Favre and Green Bay in week 8; and the pass-happy Lions in week 9. However, the passing D is a known quantity; the problem here is going to be stopping the run in a division where Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson will be getting two shots apiece at the Denver defensive line. The defense has improved; now it's up to their conditioning, stamina, and execution--and it's up to Shanahan and his coordinators to draw up plans to stop LJ and LT in those four crucial games.

3. The Chargers - The Chargers lost a dependable, steady coach in Marty Schottenheimer. Although the unspectacular, low-risk, medium-yield "Martyball" may have been a factor in San Diego's postseason collapse, the fact is that Marty was able to keep a team focused over an entire 16-game season in a highly competitive conference. Marty kept the team rolling strong despite having no star receivers, starting an unproven QB, and losing his best defensive player for several games. The Chargers went 14-2 under Marty; though LT was a huge reason, Barry Sanders used to prove year in and year out that an MVP-type season from a running back doesn't always translate to a successful team. Now Marty is gone, replaced by Norv Turner, who is quite frankly terrible as anything but a quarterbacks coach. For some reason, Chargers ownership thought it would be a good reason to hire a guy who led the Redskins to a 49-59-1 record over seven seasons and led the Raiders to a sparkling 9-23 record over two seasons (which included only ONE WIN against an AFC West team.) Do I need to continue? Well, let's be even more frank. San Diego does not have a creampuff schedule. They get the NFC Champion Chicago Bears in week 1, then jet off to Foxboro to face the new and improved Patriots. Then they go to Green Bay, always a tough road game. After getting a breather against Houston, they have to go into Minnesota and then face Indianapolis. They have two road games in Jacksonville and Tennessee, and get to rumble with Baltimore. This isn't even bringing their divisional games into question. The Broncos do not have quite as rough a schedule. Sure, they have to face the Colts, Bears, and Steelers, but they get two winnable home games against Oakland and the Jags before having to deal with the Colts.

If you're starting to sense what I'm sensing, you might be getting a little excited. Considering their tough schedule and their historically below-average new head coach, San Diego does not look like a team that's a mortal lock to match their 14-2 record of 2006. By contrast, the Broncos would seem four specifically brutal games: @ the Colts; @ Da Bears; and two games vs. the Chargers. They have two mildly tough games: @ the Bills in week 1 (remember, Denver always starts rusty;) and @ KC. It is not out of the question that the Broncos could easily finish 10-6 or 11-5 even if they simply execute at a consistent level. If they actually get some excellence out of Henry, Cutler, and the defense, 12-4 or better is more than realistic. San Diego, at best, will win 13 games, and with Norv Turner in charge, San Diego will NOT achieve "at best." The playoffs are almost a lock to a team with a 10-6 record. The Broncos should have no problem with this. However, there's no reason to set their sights so low. Denver is looking to win the division and it's a reasonable goal. The AFC West can be ruled with a 12-4 record. With luck and effort, this team should achieve at least 12 wins and possibly as many as 14 (though it would require several lucky breaks.)

Unfortunately, they are not quite Super Bowl favorites unless you're a believer in "any given Sunday." The Patriots and Colts still have superior squads with fewer question marks. The Chargers still have a tough roster and may still have a bit of "Martyball" aftertaste in them (the 2003 AFC champ Raiders relied heavily on the departed Chucky Gruden's influence to make the Super Bowl under Bill Callahan, and Barry Switzer actually won a title babysitting Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys.) The Bengals could be right there with the Broncos talent-wise if Carson Palmer holds up for a whole season and they manage to keep the number of arrests under 20 or so. The Steelers' fate depends on which version of Ben Roethlisberger shows up (2005 or 2006.) As long as the Ravens field a healthy defense, they're a threat to win 12-13 games. And there's always the chance that the Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, or Bills will hit a wild streak of luck at the right time. However at this moment the Broncos are no worse than the fifth-best team in the AFC. If Cutler's as good as Shanahan prays he is and there are no overwhelming health issues, they could easily vault into the third spot (provided Shanahan hasn't lost his edge, something we've been wondering for two or three years now.) At that point, the pressure is on New England and the Colts to stay on top, and there are no absolutes in the NFL. One twisted ankle by Brady, one sore shoulder for Manning, and suddenly the Broncos could be looking at a title run that many pundits and analysts would call "shocking" if they hadn't read about this at LetPlummerPlay.com!

On the flip side of this, the Broncos have no excuse for missing the playoffs, none, zip, nada; unless Cutler's arm ends up in Shawn Merriman's stomach or Champ Bailey decides to walk the Earth like Caine in "Kung Fu." Anything less than a playoff berth is proof positive that it's time to gently remind Mike Shanahan that head coaches are replaceable. Shanahan's got this last chance to prove that Terrell Davis didn't simply come down from the heavens to rescue him and Elway, in our opinion. Let's hope he takes this opportunity to truly excel as a coach again instead of lazily mailing it in like he did in 2006 (prove us wrong.)

We will greatly miss seeing "PLUMMER 16" out on the field during the NFL season, but we can't give up on the NFL, no sir, no ma'am. It is still the greatest show on turf and the Broncos are still the go-to team around these parts. So despite our differences regarding Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler, and Shanahan, we will continue to cheer them on and we hope they can do better this time around. Until then, we await the release of Madden '08, at which time we will...

LET PLUMMER PLAY!